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Counterfactual Thinking and the Psychology of “What If”
David Webb (Founder and Editor of All-About-Psychology.com)
When I wrote about Chasing Rainbows, I explored what it means to long for something that always feels just out of reach. That piece was about yearning, disappointment, and the quiet honesty of wanting what may never be. It also explored the hope that drives us to keep chasing.
If you haven’t read Chasing Rainbows, you might want to take a look first. It sets the scene for what follows and helps explain why this next step, the what if, feels like such a natural continuation.
Because longing doesn’t disappear when the chase ends, we’re often left with another kind of question: what if? What if I’d tried harder? What if I’d taken the risk? What if things had gone differently?
That’s where the psychology of counterfactual thinking begins. It is the mental replay button we press when we look back and imagine alternative versions of our past. Sometimes it’s a gentle exercise in reflection, helping us learn from what went wrong. Sometimes it becomes a form of self-torture, trapping us in loops of regret and comparison. Most of the time, it sits somewhere in between, shaping how we make sense of our choices, our failures, and our sense of meaning.
We have all replayed moments like these. A missed opportunity, a conversation we wish we had handled differently, a relationship that might have worked if the timing had been better. These mental rewinds are so common that we rarely stop to ask why we do them, or what purpose they serve. Are they a form of self-torment, or a quiet rehearsal for doing better next time?
If Chasing Rainbows was about the ache of wanting what is out of reach, this piece is about wondering what might have been if it hadn’t been. And that brings us to one of the most fascinating quirks of the human mind: our instinct to imagine alternatives to reality.
The Stories We Tell About What Might Have Been
If our minds are inclined to imagine what could have happened differently, it is no surprise that our stories are too. Counterfactual thinking doesn’t just live in psychology labs or philosophical debates; it fills our bookshelves, cinema screens, and streaming queues.
We have always been drawn to what if stories. They invite us to peek into alternate versions of history, to test our assumptions about fate, and to wonder how fragile the line really is between what was and what could have been.
In recent years, a wave of films and series has explored this fascination with alternative realities. The Man in the High Castle imagined a world in which the Axis powers won the Second World War. 11.22.63, based on Stephen King’s novel, followed a teacher who travels back in time to stop the assassination of John F. Kennedy, only to discover that changing the past can be more destructive than letting it be. Everything Everywhere All at Once took the idea to its most emotional extreme, using the chaos of the multiverse to explore regret, possibility, and the fragile beauty of the lives we actually live.
This impulse to imagine alternate worlds has deep roots. One of the earliest examples, Louis-Napoléon Geoffroy-Château’s Napoleon and the Conquest of the World (1836), pictured a utopia that might have arisen if Napoleon had triumphed in Russia and Britain. Later, works like Robert Harris’s Fatherland and Philip Roth’s The Plot Against America continued the tradition, showing how one altered event could shift the course of history.
These stories work because they reflect the same mental process that researchers study in counterfactual thinking; namely, our tendency to explore cause and consequence by mentally “undoing” parts of reality. When we imagine a different outcome, whether personal or historical, we are running the same mental simulation that asks, “If only this one thing had been different, what else would have followed?”
Psychologist Neal Roese describes counterfactual thinking as one of the ways we make sense of the world. It allows us to trace how events connect, learn from what might have gone wrong, and find meaning in what did. Even fictional counterfactuals serve that same purpose. They allow us to test possibilities safely, without the real-world cost of living them out.
At the same time, stories like 11.22.63 remind us that our fascination with rewriting the past carries a warning. The wish to undo what has happened is powerful but unpredictable. Every imagined change creates new consequences that are impossible to foresee.
That tension, between curiosity and consequence, is what makes counterfactual stories so enduring. They mirror the workings of the mind itself: always oscillating between imagination and regret.
The Psychology of Regret and Relief
Our tendency to imagine “what if” isn’t just reflected in the stories we tell. It plays out quietly in our daily lives, shaping how we interpret the choices we’ve already made. After something goes wrong, the mind naturally begins to edit the past, replaying moments and swapping details to see how things might have turned out differently.
These mental replays can move in two directions. When we imagine a better version of events, we experience upward counterfactuals. They often bring regret, disappointment, or guilt, but they also carry insight. By examining what could have been, we identify what might be done differently next time. When we imagine how things could have been worse, we create downward counterfactuals. These bring relief and gratitude, helping us recover balance and protect our sense of self when life feels unfair or uncertain.
In a healthy mind, both directions work together. One drives improvement, the other helps us cope. The first teaches us to act more wisely; the second reminds us that it could have been harder, or sadder, or worse. This balance keeps regret from overwhelming us and allows us to draw meaning from experience.
Trouble begins when the balance tips too far in one direction. A person who dwells too long on upward counterfactuals can become stuck in loops of self-blame and rumination. The same mechanism that once served as a learning tool turns inward, replaying the past without resolution. Downward counterfactuals can also distort reality if they are used too often, cushioning us from discomfort but dulling our motivation to grow.
At its best, counterfactual thinking is the mind’s way of fine-tuning itself. It’s a quiet system for learning, coping, and adjusting to the unpredictable flow of life. At its worst, it traps us between what happened and what might have been, blurring the line between reflection and regret.
How the Mind Builds Alternate Realities
Once we understand that counterfactuals shape how we feel, the next question is how the mind actually builds them. These imagined versions of the past do not appear randomly; they follow consistent mental rules that decide which moments we change and which we leave untouched.
This process is known as as mutability, the ease with which certain parts of an event can be mentally altered. Our minds instinctively focus on the details that stand out as unusual or controllable. If you are in an accident while taking an unfamiliar route, you might think, If only I had gone the usual way. That thought feels natural because changing it returns the situation to normal. The mind searches for the smallest change that could have made the biggest difference.
This pattern reflects norm theory, the idea that we interpret events by comparing them to what feels typical. When something breaks that pattern, it becomes the focal point of our counterfactual thoughts. A single deviation from routine can feel like the reason everything went wrong.
Another principle that shapes these mental rewrites is proximity, or how close we came to a different outcome. Missing a train by two minutes feels worse than missing it by two hours. Finishing second can feel more painful than finishing third. This is the near-miss effect, and it shows how we measure outcomes not by what happened, but by how narrowly we missed another version of events.
Proximity can change the way we feel about fortune and failure. Someone who just avoids an accident might feel deep relief because they can vividly imagine how much worse it could have been. Someone who almost wins feels sharper disappointment because success seemed within reach. What matters is not the objective result but the imagined distance between what happened and what almost did.
These mental processes reveal how counterfactuals are guided by efficiency and emotion. We do not explore every possible version of the past. Instead, we focus on the one that feels most plausible, most emotionally charged, and most instructive. The result is mental simulation that enables us to learn, cope, or sometimes simply linger.
Our imagination is not limitless. It is selective and precise, built to test small changes with large consequences. That precision is what makes counterfactual thinking both useful and, at times, unsettling.
When Reflection Turns into Rumination
While reflection can help us learn and adapt, it becomes destructive when it stops moving forward. Yet there is a point where reflection hardens into rumination. The same mental replay that once offered understanding begins to loop endlessly, trapping us in self-criticism and regret.
Rumination is repetitive, unresolved thinking that fails to reach closure. In the context of counterfactual thought, this happens when we keep returning to an imagined past without translating it into action. We replay mistakes, reinterpret choices, and search for meaning that never quite settles. The thought becomes less about learning and more about self-punishment.
Research links this pattern to symptoms of depression and anxiety. Upward counterfactuals, when focused too often on personal mistakes, can intensify self-blame. They whisper, If only I had been different, but offer no path forward. Over time, this can create a closed loop of regret, a cycle where the same insight reappears without resolution.
For of all sad words of tongue or pen,
The saddest are these: ‘It might have been!
(John Greenleaf Whittier)
At the heart of this loop lies a simple paradox. The mind generates counterfactuals to help us adapt, yet when the imagined change feels impossible, the process turns against us. If you believe you could have acted differently but no longer can, the thought becomes self-directed frustration rather than motivation.
The distinction between healthy reflection and rumination lies in movement. Constructive counterfactuals point toward future possibility; ruminative ones circle back to the same moment, drained of agency. The question quietly shifts from What can I learn from this? to Why did I fail again?
Research on depression suggests that rumination may have begun as a useful adaptation - a way for the brain to focus deeply on complex problems until they are solved. The difficulty is that in depression, the mechanism stays switched on. The person continues to analyse but never acts, exhausting emotional and cognitive resources in the process.
Breaking that cycle often means redirecting the mind from counterfactual to prefactual thinking - from If only I had to If I were to. This small shift in time frame restores a sense of control, turning reflection into planning. Instead of rewriting the past, the mind begins to simulate better futures.
Rumination, then, is not a flaw of thought but a misfiring of its most human function: to learn from what has been and imagine what could be. When that process gets stuck, the goal is not to silence the “what ifs,” but to teach them to look forward again.
Individual Differences and the Personal Psychology of What If
Not everyone experiences “what if” thinking in the same way. For some, it appears briefly, a momentary flicker of curiosity before fading away. For others, myself included, it becomes a familiar internal dialogue, replaying choices and events with a mix of wonder and (in my case mostly) regret. Psychology offers clues about why these differences arise.
Research suggests that people who score higher in openness to experience are more likely to engage in counterfactual thought. Their imaginations lean toward possibility and exploration, which allows them to turn everyday moments into mental what-ifs. This tendency can be constructive. It supports creativity, empathy, and insight by revealing how easily life could have unfolded along a different path.
In contrast, individuals who are perfectionists or maximizers often find counterfactuals more distressing. They do not just imagine alternatives; they evaluate them against the best possible version of reality. The thought of having chosen imperfectly weighs heavily, and upward counterfactuals can become a steady source of dissatisfaction.
Traits associated with emotional sensitivity also shape the experience. Those higher in neuroticism are more prone to generating self-focused counterfactuals, particularly after setbacks. Thoughts like If only I had tried harder can shift toward global self-judgments such as I always fail. Over time, this can blur the line between reflection and self-criticism.
Yet the same traits that make someone vulnerable to rumination can also enhance learning and growth when guided well. Individuals who can channel their counterfactuals into concrete plans often show improved performance and motivation. The crucial factor is control. When the imagined change feels possible, it becomes motivating. When it feels out of reach, it turns into regret.
Even within the same person, the tone of counterfactual thought changes with context. After a small mistake, it may prompt quick correction. After a major loss, it can lead to deep reflection on identity and meaning. Questions like What if I had chosen differently? or What if my life had taken another turn? help people make sense of who they are and how their choices define them.
Counterfactual thinking, then, is both a cognitive skill and a personal signature. Some minds treat life as a network of branching paths; others see it as a single unfolding story. The more we perceive life as open-ended and mutable, the more likely we are to revisit the roads not taken, searching for lessons and for peace with the ones we did.
From Reflection to Imagination: The Creative Side of What If
Counterfactual thinking is often described as a backward glance, but it also points the mind toward the future. The same process that replays our past choices gives rise to imagination itself. When we picture how things might have turned out differently, we are not only revisiting memory; we are training the mind to create.
This mental flexibility sits at the heart of creativity. Scientists, designers, and everyday problem-solvers use it constantly. A researcher testing a new theory asks, what if this assumption were wrong? A doctor reflecting on a diagnosis considers, what if I had started with another treatment? Even a parent replaying a conversation with a teenager might think, what if I had responded with patience instead of frustration? These are all counterfactual exercises, using alternative versions of the past to guide better outcomes in the future.
Psychologically, this process strengthens cognitive adaptability. Each “what if” opens a small window into possibility, allowing the brain to explore causal links between actions and outcomes. Over time, this habit makes us more capable of solving new problems because we become skilled at mentally simulating change before it happens.
In innovation and design, this capacity is formalized into method. Engineers use counterfactual reasoning to predict how a system might behave if one variable changed. Economists use it to model outcomes that never occurred but could have. In everyday life, imagining alternatives offers the potential to adjust plans, manage risk, and prepare for uncertainty.
Seen this way, counterfactual thinking is not just a reflection of regret but a rehearsal for growth. It’s the mind’s natural tool for rewriting the rules of experience, helping us adapt rather than repeat. While too much reflection can lead to rumination, the right balance turns hindsight into foresight and regret into readiness.
Making Peace with What Might Have Been
As mentioned at the start, in Chasing Rainbows I wrote about the ache of wanting what feels out of reach. Counterfactual thinking is its companion piece. Both speak to the same human impulse: to hold reality up against imagination and to find a kind of truth in the space between them.
When we look back on the paths we didn’t take, it’s tempting to see only the loss. The job that slipped away, the person we let go, the decision we wish we could reverse. Counterfactual thinking invites us to imagine these alternate lives in detail, and in doing so, it reminds us that possibility has no expiry date in the mind. The past can’t be changed, but it can still be reinterpreted.
That capacity to imagine what might have been is both a gift and a burden. It sharpens our understanding of cause and consequence, but it also exposes the ache of what we cannot undo. The challenge is not to silence these thoughts but to let them settle into perspective. When we accept that we will always wonder about the roads not taken, we begin to see counterfactual thinking not as an enemy of peace but as part of how the mind makes meaning.
Perhaps the point is not to stop asking “what if,” but to notice what those questions reveal. Every imagined version of life carries a trace of what we value most. The things we can’t stop reimagining are often the same things that make us who we are.
So the challenge is not to erase the “what if,” but to live comfortably beside it. To let regret inform rather than define us. To recognise that peace rarely comes from rewriting the past, but from understanding it well enough to stop trying to.
However, I fully appreciate that if you’re anything like me, this is much easier said than done.
How do you make peace with the “what ifs” in your own story?
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